This year, when Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray decided to forgo a career in baseball for a chance to become a top pick in the 2019 NFL draft, his measurables captured attention in a different way. Last year, much of the pre-draft speculation surrounded where current Buffalo Bills starting QB Josh Allen - who is tall and can hit an upright from his knees from 50 yards away - would be selected. Throw in the fact that young QBs are sometimes placed in schemes that fail to take advantage of their skills, 1 that red flags regarding character go unidentified or ignored 2 and that prospects often lack stable coaching environments, and there is no shortage of explanations for the recurring evaluation failures.Īll of this uncertainty makes the NFL draft extremely exciting: You never know for certain who will be good and who will be an absolute bust. No franchise or GM has shown the ability to beat the draft over time, and economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler have convincingly shown that the league’s lack of consistent draft success is likely due to overconfidence rather than an efficient market. NFL scouts, coaches and general managers - the world’s foremost experts on football player evaluation - have been notoriously terrible at separating good QB prospects from the bad through the years. No position in professional sports is more important or more misunderstood than the quarterback.
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